Welcome to the offseason, NBA fans. Now that the Finals are over and the Golden State Warriors are the champions of the league again, it’s time to look ahead. That means we’ll be breaking down free agent profiles all week.
And while we’ll get to the big fish next week, it’s all about the positional breakdowns this week. Monday brought us our restricted free agents. Tuesday, we tackled centers and power forwards. Yesterday was all about small forwards. So today we’re tacking shooting guards…
J.J. Redick has very little control over his own free agency. He knows that the Philadelphia 76ers are going to spend the first week of July fishing for whales. He also knows that his presence makes the acquisition of such a superstar impossible. They would have to renounce his rights to bring that player in, and it will be a long wait for those players to make their decision.
Meanwhile, Redick will be staring down the barrel of multiple offers for the full Mid-Level Exception. There will be no shortage of opportunity for perhaps the NBA’s best non-Warriors shooter. The determining factor will likely be years. If some team is willing to commit three years to Redick, his contract would reach almost $30 million in total. That’s a lot of guaranteed money to leave on the table, but if the Sixers keep his cap hold on the books after striking out, they could pay him that much for the 2017-18 season alone with his non-Bird Rights. But if he leaves those multi-year offers on the table, the Sixers may end up with LeBron James or Paul George.
That would leave him in a precarious situation. That third season will likely be a sticking point in negotiations with other teams. If someone offers it, Redick could leave. If not? He’ll wait out the superstar stage of free agency knowing that Philadelphia is an underdog in that arena anyway. That makes a return to Philly on another large one-year deal by far the likeliest outcome.